Proprietary Forecasting Model:
 Employment Growth and Housing Market Recovery

Empire Economics has performed a significant amount of research on housing market conditions, and has identified the key economic factor underlying the future conditions of the housing market.  Specifically, after systematically analyzing the role of numerous economic and real estate variables under a broad array of scenarios, the key factor that drives the housing market recovery is Employment Growth.

The following graph illustrates that when the aggregate levels of employment attain new highs (the green portion of the line), then this provides the driving force for housing prices to appreciate at moderate rates (the blue bars being positive).  Conversely, when employment is declining (the red portion of the line), then housing prices decline (the blue bars being negative). Finally, when employment growth is replenishing the jobs that were previously lost (yellow part of the line), housing prices are stable or rise slightly.